2008 TEAM STATE FINALS PREVIEW
Division 1
Quarterfinal Matchups:
#1 Davison vs #10 Canton
#2 Holt vs #5 Hartland
#3 Rockford vs #4 Temperance Bedford
Lanse Creuse vs #6 Lake Orion
The Divsision 1 district and regional duals were somewhat uneventful with very few surprises. MI Grappler predicted 7 out of the 8 quarterfinalists correctly. While D1 has been unexcited thus far, they may have the most exciting and anticipated state tournament duals. Right off the bat, Holt/Hartland and Rockford/Bedford should be great duals.
If Holt and Rockford show up they should get through those duals, which would set up Davison/Holt and Rockford/Lake Orion for the semifinals. Holt and Davison may be the dual of the year as many believe the state champs will be decided in that dual. Returning champs Rockford should get through Lake Orion, however, they are a well put together team that will not roll over for the Rams. Finals match should be Davison or Holt vs Rockford, which should be an instant classic between two top notch teams.
Here is a look at some of the duals and individual matches to watch for:
#2 Holt vs #5 Hartland (Quarterfinals)
Potential matchups:
103 – #4 Matthieson (Holt) vs #6 Monitz (Hartland)
112 – Leonard (Holt) vs Hellner (Hartland)
119 – Hanton (Holt) vs Bryan Hughes (Hartland)
125 – Miller (Holt) vs Doug Baughman (Hartland)
130 – #6 Ankney (Holt) vs Hultberg / John Julien (Hartland)
135 – King (Holt) vs Hultberg/Julien (Hartland)
140 – #7 Leyrer (Holt) vs ??
145 – Seyka (Holt) vs Bain (Hartland)
152 – #4 Z Shaw (Holt) vs #1 Bommarito (Hartland)
160 – #9 J Shaw (Holt) vs ??
171 – Mireles/Andring (Holt) vs #5 Summerfield (Hartland)
189 – #9 Boone (Holt) vs Noah Ramirez (Hartland)
215 – #2 Zajac (Holt) vs #10 Corder (Hartland)
285 – #5 Ferguson (Holt) vs #2 Charneski (Hartland)
Looking at the possible matchups you have to keep in mind that in big time high school duals everything is subject to change. There will likely be surprises in matchups, kids will cut down, bump up, miss weight, get hurt, etc. However, based on what we expect as far as matchups, Holt is favored in 6 weights: 119, 130, 140, 160, 189, 215. Then you figure Hartland should win 4, but can only count on winning 3: 135, 145, & 171. That leaves 5 weight classes that will be toss ups:
103 - Matthieson vs Monitz - Two tough sophomores that are will both be vying for spots on the podium next weekend. Matthieson beat Monitz this year, but this one could go either way.
112 - Leonard vs Hellner - Two state tournament snubs, both Leonard and Hellner fell just short of qualifying for the Palace, but they are both talented and expierenced. Two totally different styles, Leonard is short, stocky in your face kind of wrestler where Hellner is longer, more finesse and good on the mat. Once again, could go either way. If we had to pick, go with the senior Leonard.
125 - Miller vs Baughman - This is a question mark for Holt as Miller did not wrestle at individuals. If Miller is back then Holt should be favored to win this weight, but Baughman is tough and will definitely challenge Miller. If Miller does not wrestle, then Hartland should win with possible bonus points
152 - Bommarito, the top ranked 145lber, will likely bump to 152 here as long as Bain wrestles. An injured Bain should still be enough to get the win at 145, but dont count on bonus points there. With Bommarito at 152 Hartland should be confident in their state champ, but he will have a tough match with Zack Shaw. Shaw is a former all-stater that is capable of beating Bommarito.
285 - Ferguson and Charneski are two of the best big men in the country and should be your classic heavyweight match with little scoring. One takedown could be the difference with these two, however, as always with heavyweights, if someone slips up and gets in danger a pin is always possible (especially with Charneski, who just pinned Mike Martin).
So with Holt winning 6 for sure and Hartland 3, then you add in Bommarito as a likely win for Hartland, the Eagles would still need to win 3 or 4 of the toss ups to have a shot. If Miller wrestles it could seal the deal for Holt. Also, if Bain is not back it could end Hartland's run as well. Should be a good dual with a lot of close matches, if Hartland can win some toss ups, then it could be close, but if Holt picks up a couple of those toss ups they could end up winning by 15 or 20 points.
#3 Rockford vs #4 Temperance Bedford (Quarterfinals)
103 – Alex Padilla (R) vs Mason Allison (B)
112 – #1 Waldo/#2 Byers (R) vs Tom Fox (B)
119 – #2 Byers/#1 Waldo (R) vs Salier (B)
125 – Ian Martin (R) vs Bryan Gibbs (B)
130 – #10 Z Johnson (R) vs #2 Bill Osborne/Mike Peck (B)
135 – #8 Bonner (R) vs #2 Osborne/Peck (B)
140 – #4 Jake Johnson/Bruce Carlstrom (R) vs Aaron Jeffrey (B)
145 – #2 Dorulla/Bruce Carlstro (R) vs TJ Romijn (B) (30-18)
152 – #2 Dorulla/CJ Scholl (R) vs #9 Pat Nusbaum
160 - CJ Scholl (R) vs #1 Alex Ortman (B)
171 - #1 Ben Bennett (R) vs Ian Kohlofer (B)
189 – #6 Joe Stefanski/Tucker Anderson (R) vs #5 Nick Whitenburg (B)
215 - #6 Joe Stefanski (R) vs Jacob Syzch (B)
285 - #6 Jesse Somsel (R) vs Mason Cole (B)
Rockford is back to full strength and appears to have too much firepower for Bedford here. With their big guns along Rockford should win 6 or 7 matches handily, many with bonus points, therefore, Bedford will have to pull of some upsets if they want to have a shot here. Temperance should count on wins from there big 3 of Osborne, Ortman, and Whitenburg. Other than that, however, nothing is a sure thing. Gibbs (125) could possibly beat Martin, Peck (130/135) may be able to surprise Johnson or Bonner, and Nusbaum get a win if Dorulla stays down at 145. Even if they get those wins they still will likely come up a little short, which is why it looks like Rockford should advance. A full strength Rockford squad will tough to beat this weekend if they are clicking on all cylinders.
#1 Davison vs #2 Holt (Semifinals)
103 - Thronson (D) vs #4 Matthieson (H)
112 - #8 Robbins (D) vs Leonard (H)
119 - #2 Rickard (D) vs Hanton (H)
125 - #3 Davis (D) vs Miller (H)
130 - McKenna (D) vs #6 Ankney (H)
135 - #3 Labelle (D) vs King (H)
140 - #1 McDermitt (D) vs #7 Leyrer (H)
145 - #7 Hodgeson (D) vs Seyka (H)
152 - Hyatt (D) vs #4 Z Shaw (H)
160 - Boan (D) vs #9 J Shaw (H)
171 - Connell (D) vs Mireles/Andring (H)
189 - #1 Kirksey (D) vs #9 Boone (H)
215 - ?? (D) vs #2 Zajac (H)
285 - #8 Cowan (D) vs #5 Ferguson (H)
We all know Roy Hall has tricks up his sleeve when and when it comes to bigtime duals he is the best at moving his lineup around and getting optimal matchups, so matchups may change, however, if they match up like this Davison appears to be favored in 6 weights: 112, 119, 125, 135, 140, 189. Holt, meanwhile, can count on 4 weights: 103, 130, 152, and 215. Then, there are 4 weights up for grabs:
145 - Hodgeson is a qualifier at 135, however, you have to imagine that Davison will weigh him in at 140 and bump him to 145 as they should try to keep McDermitt on Leyrer. If Holt wins the flip and gets Leyrer off of McDermitt it would give them another win to count on. Hodgeson at 145 would not be a definite win. While he is probably the better wrestler he will be up two weights from his natural weight and Seyka should not be overlooked. He is a solid wrestler that will challenge Hodgeson.
160 - Boan got eliminated from the individual tournament, but dont get confused he is a stud when he shows up. He is a big, strong, athletic kid that is capable of beating almost anyone in the state at 160 whe he is on. Shaw has turned it on this year and is one of those kids that just keeps coming. This should be a battle between two physical wrestlers.
171 - Holt's pair of Mireles and Andring are solid 171lbers and Davison's Connell has been up at 189 and 215 most of this year. A battle of regional qualifiers here, this one is up for grabs and hard to call.
285 - Two ranked wrestlers, Cowan is a somewhat undersized heavyweight and Ferguson is not. Ferguson's size give him an advantage, but Cowan is tough and this is another toss up.
Alot here could come down to the flip with 140. Holt will likely try to get Leyrer off of McDermitt, which would give Holt 5 for sure wins. Ferguson has got to be favored at 285 and 171 is a complete toss up. With that it is looking like Holt could win easily win at least 7 matches, which makes them a serious threat to pull this off. Lets say Holt wins the flip and bumps Leyrer away from McDermitt, here is our prediction:
103 - Matthieson majdec (4-0 H); 112 - Robbins dec (4-3 H); 119 - Rickard majdec (7-4 D); 125 - Davis majdec (11-4 D); 130 - Ankney dec (11-7 D); 135 - Labelle majdec (15-7 D); 140 - McDermitt pin (21-7 D); 145 - Leyrer majdec (21-11 D); 152 - Shaw pin (21-17 D); 160 - Boan dec (24-17 D); 171 - Mireles dec (24-20 D); 189 - Kirksey majdec (28-20 D); 215 - Zajac pin (28-26 D); 285 - Ferguson dec (29-28 Holt).
With those predictions Holt comes away on top by 1 point! However, there is so much that could change that it is hard to pick who will win this dual. The key to the dual will likely be what happens at 140/145, and then the 160 & 171 matches. A couple other things to keep in mind is Brandon Shuart of Davison and Dustin Miller of Holt. Neither wrestled in the individuals and whether or not they wrestle could have huge implications. If Shuart wrestles then 103 becomes a toss up and if Miller does not wrestle than 125 turns into definite big points for Davison. Should be a great dual!
#3 Rockford vs #6 Lake Orion (Semifinals)
103 – Alex Padilla (R) vs Lance Grdzanski (LO)
112 – #1 Waldo/#2 Byers (R) vs Jake Pratt (LO)
119 – #2 Byers/#1 Waldo (R) vs #8 Doug Mack (LO)
125 – Ian Martin (R) vs ??
130 – #10 Z Johnson (R) vs Justin Ruddy (LO)
135 – #8 Bonner (R) vs #9 AJ Pratt (LO)
140 – #4 Jake Johnson/Bruce Carlstrom (R) vs Jeremy Peshl/AJ Fligger (LO)
145 – #2 Dorulla/Bruce Carlstro (R) vs Peshl/Fligger
152 – #2 Dorulla/CJ Scholl (R) vs #1 Jake Varilek (LO)
160 - CJ Scholl (R) vs #7 Joe Graffeo (LO)
171 - #1 Ben Bennett (R) vs Bobby Harr/Morgan Maciejeski (LO)
189 – #6 Joe Stefanski/Tucker Anderson (R) vs #8 Evan Gros (LO)
215 - #6 Joe Stefanski (R) vs Layne Upcott (LO)
285 - #6 Jesse Somsel (R) vs Tyler Benson (LO)
Rockford got a favorable draw, avoiding Davison and Holt, however, the returning champs will not have a cakewalk to the finals with Bedford and then Lake Orion in the semis. Lake Orion has came out of nowhere this year and them making the semifinals is a big feat for their program. Not many people probably expect them to really challenge Rockford, however, it is possible. It is not a stretch to say they can win 6 matches, which would put them in the ballpark. Weights favored for Lake Orion = 4 (103,152,160,215), Rockford should win at least 7 (112,119,125,140, 145, 171, 285). Then 130, 135, and 189 should be toss ups. If Lake Orion wants to have a shot at pulling this off they will have to win all three.
130 - Johnson vs Ruddy - A battle of two state qualifiers here, Zack Johnson has been hurt most of this year and he is just getting back into the swing of things. A healthy Johnson at 100% at this match should be a no brainer for Rockford, but a recovering Johnson that has been up and down so far in his return and Ruddy should have a shot at making something happen.
135 - Bonner vs Pratt - Another battle of state qualifiers and ranked wrestlers. Bonner is a freshman so this may be a new environment for him and could effect his performance. Pratt, a senior, is a leader on the LO team and has been hot as of late, cruising to district and regional titles. With his expierence and sucess as of late, you have to lean towards Pratt here.
189/215 - Stefanski vs Gros/Upcott - The ball is in coach Rinehart's court here as Stefanski has wrestled both 189 and 215 for the Rams all year. A Stefanski/Gros match would be a battle of two of the top 189lbers in the state, however ,Upcott has missed much of this year and does not appear to be back to his all-state form, so they may prefer that match up for Stefanski. Which ever weight Stefanski goes, Lake Orion needs to beat him if they want to be in this dual.
#1 Davison vs #3 Rockford (Finals)
103 - Thronson (D) vs Padilla (R)
112 - #8 Robbins (D) vs #1 Waldo/#2 Byers (R)
119 - #2 Rickard (D) vs #1 Waldo/#2 Byers (R)
125 - #3 Davis (D) vs Martin (R)
130 - McKenna (D) vs #10 Z Johnson (R)
135 - #3 Labelle (D) vs #9 Bonner/Carlstrom (R)
140 - #1 McDermitt (D) vs #4 Jake Johnson/Carlstrom/Bonner (R)
145 - #7 Hodgeson (D) vs #4 Jake Johnson/#2 Jake Dorulla (R)
152 - Hyatt (D) vs #2 Jake Dorulla (R)
160 - Boan (D) vs Scholl (R)
171 - Connell (D) vs #1 Bennett
189 - #1 Kirksey (D) vs #6 Joe Stefanski/Tucker Anderson
215 - ?? (D) vs #2 Stefanski (R)
285 - #8 Cowan (D) vs #5 Somsel (R)
Ok, we will look at how Holt and Davison would match up with Rockford. First, lets look at Davison/Rockford. They met a month ago at the Rockford Duals and Davison won 42-21, however, Rockford was without Waldo and Johnson and alot can change with little matchup differences. Things could change based on matchups, but the way we see it Davison should win 7 and Rockford should win 7, which would make bonus points the difference. Davison's favored at 103, 119, 125, 135, 140, 160, & 189 and Rockford should win 112, 130, 145, 152, 171, 215, & 285. Here are some potential swing matches to keep an eye on:
119 - This is totally up to Rockford, but they will have to choose which 112lber wrestles up against #2 ranked Bryan Rickard. Byers lost 3-0 to Rickard in their last dual, and Waldo has beaten Byers a couple times now, so Rinehart may bump Waldo up to 119 which would make for a primetime match of the possible state champs at 112 & 119 going at it. If you rememeber the last time these two met it was two years ago at the state tournament and rather than Waldo bumping up it was Rickard cutting down to 103 in a surprise move that caught Rockford and then freshman Waldo off guard as Rickard dominated Waldo and the Cardinals pulled off the improbable win en route to a state title. This time around it may be Waldo moving up to wrestle Rickard, but will the result be different?
125/130 - Another spot where Rockford has a couple options, Martin lost in overtime to McKenna last time and Johnson has a much better shot at beating Davis then Martin. If Zack Johnson weighs in at 125 then they could keep Martin up on McKenna and hope he turns it around this time, then hope for a Johnson upset over Davis and get two wins out of these weights.
140/145 - Both teams have alot of options here as Hodgeson is a 135lber, but will likely weigh in at 140 to give Davison the option of putting him at 145. Rockford could bump Bonner to wrestle Hodgeson, who he beat 7-2 last time around, but Davison could always leave McDermitt down at 140. No matter what happens Rockford should win two weights from 140-152, whether it come from Bonner, Johnson, or Dorulla.
189/215 - Rockford will hope to win the flip here and get Stefanski away from Kirksey. If they do then they should swap big wins, however, if Davison wins the flip and has choice dont be surpised if they move Kirksey up with Stefanski and leave Connell at 189.
Here is how I see a Davison/Rockford dual going this time around, with these matchups:
103 - Thronson dec (3-0 D); 112 - Waldo majdec (4-3 R); 119 - Rickard dec (6-4 D); 125 - Davis majdec (10-4 D); 130 - ZJohnson dec (10-7 D); 135 - Labelle pin (16-7 D); 140 - McDermitt maj dec (20-7 D); 145 - JaJohnson dec (20-10 D); 152 - Dorulla tfall (20-15 D); 160 - Boan pin (26-15 D); 171 - Bennett pin (26-21 D); 189 - Kirksey pin (32-21 D); 215 - Stefanski md (32-25 D); 285 - Somsel (R) dec (32-28 D)
Davison comes out on top, the differnce: bonus points.
#2 Holt vs #3 Rockford (Finals)
103 – Padilla (R) vs #4 Matthieson (H)
112 – #1 Waldo/#2 Byers (R) vs Leonard (H)
119 – #2 Byers/#1 Waldo (R) vs Hanton (H)
125 – Martin (R) vs Miller (H)
130 – #10 Z Johnson (R) vs #6 Ankney (H)
135 – #8 Bonner (R) vs King (H)
140 – #4 Jake Johnson/Bruce Carlstrom (R) vs Leyrer (H)
145 – #2 Dorulla/Johnson (R) vs Seyka (H)
152 – #2 Dorulla/CJ Scholl (R) vs #4 Z Shaw (H)
160 - CJ Scholl (R) vs #9 J Shaw (H)
171 - #1 Ben Bennett (R) vs Mireles/Andring (H)
189 – #6 Joe Stefanski/Tucker Anderson (R) vs #9 Boone (H)
215 - #6 Joe Stefanski (R) vs #2 Zajac (H)
285 - #6 Jesse Somsel (R) vs #5 Ferguson (H)
If Holt beats Davison and takes on Rockford in the finals it should be alot more straight up than a Davison/Rockford dual. In this dual Rockford should win 6 weights (112, 119, 135, 140, 145, 171), Holt should be favored in 5 (103, 130, 152, 160, 215), and 3 other weights should be toss ups. Here are the toss ups, which could decide the dual:
125 - Ian Martin vs Dustin Miller - This all depends on if Miller wrestles, as stated previously he did not wrestle at the individual districts, so this is all contingent on him coming back. If Miller is out then Rockford is favored here and it makes things a little tougher for Holt. If Miller does wrestle it should make for an interesting matchup as he and Martin are very different in terms of style. Martin is in your face and phsyical while Miller is a very tall 125lber who likes to wrap you up and get on top where he is dangerous.
189 - Stefanski vs Boone Normally Rockford has options with Stefanski going 189 or 215, but there should be no choice here they should keep him down to 189 with #2 ranked Mitch Zajac at 215 for Holt. Staying at 189 is not a sure win though as Corbin Boone is also a ranked state qualifier who is capable of getting a win here.
285 - Somsel vs Ferguson - Two big boy heavyweights who have seen each other a couple times this year with Ferguson coming out on top both times in close matches. Like most top notch heavyweights these two will likely be closely contested and anyone's match to win.
Realistically Holt probably needs to win 2 out of the 3 toss ups to win the dual, if Miller is out at 125 then they need to win 189 and 285. Here is our match by match prediction:
103 - Matthieson pin (6-0 H); 112 - Waldo majdec (6-4 H); 119 - Byers dec (7-6 R); 125 - Martin dec (10-6 R); 130 - Ankney dec (10-9 R); 135 - Bonner dec (13-9 R); 140 - Johnson dec (16-9 R); 145 - Dorulla pin (22-9 R); 152 - ZShaw pin (22-15 R); 160 - J Shaw maj dec (22-19 R); 171 - Bennett pin (28-19 R); 189 - Stefanski dec (31-19); 215 - Zajac pin (31-25 R); 285 - Ferguson dec (31-28 R)
31-28 Rockford wins. So two things can be taken away from this little expirement 1) Holt needs Miller to wrestle and they need to win 2 of the 3 toss ups. 2) Based on matchups Rockford should be rooting heavily for Holt to beat Davison because they match up much better with them.
MI GRAPPLER PREDICTIONS
QuarterFinals - Davison over Canton (+25); Holt over Hartland (+16); Rockford over Bedford (+30), Lake Orion over Lanse Creuse (+30)
SemiFinals - Davison over Holt (+1), Rockford over Lake Orion (+15)
Finals - Davison over Rockford (+3)
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