2009 Team State Championships Preview
MHSAA Dual State Championships
Kellogg Center - Battle Creek, MI
March 6-7, 2009
DIVISION 1
---Quarterfinals---
#1 Rockford vs Roseville
Roseville may be outmatched by this high octane Rockford squad, however, they are a solid team with 8 state qualifiers, so they should be able to put some points on the board. If Roseville shows up and wrestles well they could be able to win 6 matches, but probably no more than that and they will likely not score near the bonus points of Rockford.
Our Pick: Rockford +20
#4 Detroit Catholic Central vs Lake Orion
This should be the closest of the D1 quarterfinal bouts. DCC beat Lake Orion earlier this year, which is why they landed the #4 seed, however, the Dragons have been on fire this postseason, knocking off Clarkston, Rochester Adams, and Anchor Bay en route to Battle Creek, so DCC better watch out. These teams both come out of Oakland County and they see each other a few times throughout the year so there should not be any surprises and both squads should come in with strategies and game plans in tact. Now they will just have to settle it on the mat. On paper these guys are close, DCC's lightweights are looking good, but Lake Orion has some studs sprinkled throughout their lineup. There will likely be some strategy coming into play with matchups, weigh ins, and the coin flip.
Our Pick - Lake Orion +4
#3 Hartland vs Westland John Glenn
Hartland has quietly put together a solid year and they go into the state meet with a shot at making the finals if they can knock off Holt in the semis, but first they have to get through John Glenn, who knocked off Bedford at regionals. Wesland John Glenn qualified 8 guys for the state meet, which proves they are a threat here. Hartland appears to have more depth and ability to get the matchups they need, however, if John Glenn can pull of a couple upsets and have some things go there way they may be capable of hanging in this dual. Big individual matchups to watch will be state qualifiers Steve Wakeford (JG) and Ross Kantola (H) at 103 and Dustin Gajwoski (JG) vs Brandon Kesterson (H) at 285. John Glenn will need to come away with both of these matches if they want to stay in this dual.
Our Pick: Hartland +11
#2 Holt vs Midland
This will likely be the most lopsided dual of the D1 quartefinals as Midland will be extremely outmatched. They have to be happy about getting past Davison to advance to Battle Creek, but their trip will likely be short lived. Midland is probably looking at winning 3 or 4 weights if Holt wrestles them straight up.
Our Pick: Holt +34
--Semifinals--
#1 Rockford vs Lake Orion
If Lake Orion pulls it out against DCC and gets to this point it will be a tremendous run, however, that run will likely end here in the semifinals. Rockford comes in with more firepower than anyone else in the state and they should earn enough bonus points to put some distance between themselves and LO. There are a few weights where Rockford is vulnerable and Lake Orion will have to take advantage of that with big wins, and then put up some big wins with their studs, if they want to have a shot. On paper I see LO winning 5, maybe 6 matches.
Our Pick: Rockford +14
#2 Holt vs #3 Hartland
This should be a very nice semifinal dual between two stellar programs, rich in tradition. Both of these teams are pretty solid from top to bottom with a lot of depth and flexibility to move people around. On paper it looks like Holt is too much for Hartland, but anything can happen in Battle Creek. If Hartland wants to pull this off they will need some upsets in the lower weights and they will probably need to win two or three of the matches listed below.
Key Matches:
103 - #2 Rodriguez (Holt) vs #8 Kantola (Hartland)
112 - #4 Matthieson (Holt) vs #5 Monitz (Hartland) *Matthieson won earlier this year soundly*
125 - #10 Hanton (Holt) vs Snider (Hartland)
171 - #2 Summerfield (Hartland) vs #4 Andring (Holt)
Our Pick: Holt +12
Bottom line, with lineup changes or not Holt will need to pull out a couple of toss ups weights. 130, 135, 145, 160, and 215 are all matches that could possibly go either way. 160 and 215 are the big time swing matches with top ranked wrestlers. At 160 Rockford's top ranked Jake Johnson has beaten Josh Shaw twice this year by scores of 8-5 and 4-3 while at 215 Mireles and Stefanski have split a win a piece.
Here how we have it broke down (based on weights displayed above):
Matches that Holt can count on winning (4) 103, 112, 152, 189
Matches that Rockford can count on winnings -(5) 119, 125, 140, 171, 285
Matches that could go either way - (5) 130, 135, 145, 160, 215
Therefore you are looking at 5 weights that will determine the outcome of this dual. It should be a true test of depth as both teams will be relying on less known, less expierenced wrestlers to step up and win them a state championship. There are a lot of variables that could come into play as both Rockford and Holt have some options as for what to do with the middle weights to try and squeeze as many wins as possible out of 130-145. Bonus points are always a factor, however, I don't see a lot of "for sure pin/tech" type weights. Holt 103, 112, 189 should all be big wins while Rockford 119, 140, 171, and 285 should all be big points. This one is tough to pick, but no matter how you look at it this dual should live up to the hype and be the highlight match of this year's team state finals.
Our Pick: Rockford +2
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