2009 Team State Championships Preview
MHSAA Dual State Championships
Kellogg Center - Battle Creek, MI
March 6-7, 2009
DIVISION 3
---Quarterfinals---
#1 Goodrich vs Allendale
The top ranked returning champs will be tested right out of the gates this weekend as Allendale has been a sleeper all year long. Allendale has 8 state qualifiers on their team and the thing that makes them dangerous against Goodrich is that their upperweights are one of the few groups of big men in the state that may be able to hang with Goodrich's big boys. It looks like on paper Goodrich should win 6 or 7 matches for sure and Allendale should be able to get 4 definite wins, but there are 3 or 4 close matches between very good wrestlers that Allendale will have to win all or most of if they want to have a shot at pulling off the upset.
Key Matches:
103 - Weber (G) vs Reatini (A)
160 - Weil (G) vs Groenveld (A)
171 - March (G) vs Heileman (A)
215 - #2 Lasinski (G) vs #1 Beebe (A)
If Goodrich wins at least two of these four matches then they should be smooth sailing, however, if Allendale can steal 3 of these 4 then the dual is starting to look pretty close. Even if Allendale splits 7 wins a piece, Goodrich should be able to muster up the bonus points to win the dual.
Our Pick: Goodrich +10
#4 Swan Valley vs Shelby
If it were the old days when duals started at 103, then this dual would probably be sealed up by the time they hit 160. Swan Valley is capable of sweeping all the matches from 103 through 160 if they get the matchups right. Shelby is capable of winning 4 or 5 matches in this dual, but SV should put them away relatively easily.
Our Pick: Swan Valley +29
#3 Dundee vs Richmond
Richmond qualified half their lineup to the Palace, however, they don't match up particularly well with this bottom loaded Dundee squad. The only way to beat Dundee is either beat their lower weight studs (not easy) or be able to rank up points at the upper weights and unfortunately for Richmond, their upper weights are not great. Based on my calculations Dundee should win them all from 103 through 140, and they could possibly win all the way to 152 if they can get a good match up like Pete Rendina on Henke at 140. You have to applaud Richmond for always finding a way to advance deep into the Team tournament, but this year does not look like their year. Dundee should be too much and things could get ugly in this one if Richmonds doesn't show up.
Our Pick: Dundee +18
#2 Allegan vs Roscommon
Allegan should be way too much for Roscommon to handle. If Roscommon can muster up 5 wins they should be happy. I see them likely winning 4 if Allegan goes straight up.
Our Pick: Allegan +34
--Semifinals--
#1 Goodrich vs #4 Swan Valley
The Division 3 semifinals may be just as entertaining as all the final duals combined. The Goodrich-SV match should be a great dual with a ton of big, big time matchups. Swan Valley's lower to middle weights will obviously score some big points and then Goodrich's studs up to should answer back with bonus points as well. On paper, I see SV counting on 6 and Goodrich counting on 5 wins, leaving three matches that are toss-ups. The 3 toss up, key matches are:
103 - #4 Weber (G) vs #8 Flores (SV)
140 - #9 Hopkins (G) vs #4 Lamson (SV)
160 - Weil (G) vs #6 Bell (SV)
If things go right for Swan Valley they should win at 112, 119, 125 and 130 with at least two or three very big wins in there. It might make sense for Goodrich to bump Britton up to 135 and get him away from Thiele/Germaine at 130 to ensure them some points there. If Goodrich wants to win I think they will need to win big up top and win at least two, if not all of the swing matches listed above.
Our Pick: Swan Valley +2
#2 Allegan vs #3 Dundee
These guys met earlier in the year when Allegan ran away with a 40-20 win over Dundee at the MI Duals. Ever since then Allegan has been considered legitimate threats to contend in Division 3. Allegan appears to be much more deep throughout then Dundee, who is a lot stronger in the lower weights than upper weights. Allegan's capablitiy to win some matches in the lower weights, combined with their ability to win big up top, should pose a big problem for Dundee. Below is the box score from the last time these two met earlier this year.
Allegan 40, Dundee 20 @ Michigan Duals in January:
130 - Joe Rendina (D) t-fall Steve Krchatovich 18-3
135 - Dundee wins by dec (names not available)
140 - Josh White (D) majdec Garrett Smith 14-5
145 - Matt Smith (A) majdec Brandon Desbrough 16-6
152 - Scott Snook (D) dec Collin Smythe 4-3
160 - John Grispin (A) dec Corey Hekilla 6-2
171 - John Rizgallah (A) void
189 - Brian Sisley (A) void
215 - Steve Blanc (A) pin Joe Hoffman
285 - Brent Thomson (A) pin
103 - Nathan Jaworski (D) dec Robbie Wilson 10-8
112 - Taylor Simaz (A) dec Joey White 4-1
119 - Steve Poffenberger (A) pine Nate Wade
125 - Taylan Knoblach (A) dec Chris Rau 2-1
While Allegan beat them soundly back in January, there a few spots where Dundee can turn things around and close the gap a little bit. First off, they have Heiserman back at 189 now, which should be at least a 9 point swing in Dundee's favor. In addition, Dundee was without Brandon Treharne at 119/125 last time out, and having him in there will give them a little bit of flexibility. Honestly, both of these teams are extremely flexible from 119 through 145 and it will be interesting to see how each coaching staff decides to weigh their guys in and try to shuffle around for the best possible outcome. They saw each other at Individual Regionals last weekend so they should both have some familiarity with each other and know how to strategize. There will be end up being a few very crucial matches between quality wrestlers in the lower and middle weights, and some of these may change based on who gets bumped and shuffled around, but here is the key matches to watch for:
103 - Jaworksi (D) vs Wilson (A) **Jaws won twice this year, 10-2 most recent at regionals
112 - White (D) vs Simaz (A) **These two have split, White won 4-3 at regionals, Simaz won 4-1 at MI Duals
119 - Rau/Treharn (D) vs Poffenberger (A) **Poff pinned Rau at regionals
125 - Rendina/Rau (D) vs Knobloch **Knoblach beat Rau 2-1 last time, Rendina maj. Knoblock 9-1 at Regionals
130 - Josh White (D) vs Garrett Smith (A) **White beat Smith 3-1 at Regionals
189 - Heiserman (D) vs Sousley (A) **Sousley beat Heiserman 3-1 at Regionals
As previously stated there are a ton of moves that could be made and this dual should be a good display of two very deep, well coached D3 teams going at it. On paper I see 5 reliable wins for Dundee and 6 for Allegan. Then there should be 3 or 4 matches that could go either way, so this one may be gut wrenching to the last whistle.
Our Pick: Allegan +4
--Finals--
#2 Allegan vs #4 Swan Valley
One challenge facing whoever advances to the D3 finals will be rebounding and
regrouping after what should be an emotional, roller coaster semifinal dual that
they will be coming right off of. Both of these teams have a lot of firepower, but much
like Dundee, Swan Valley is bottom loaded. From 171 up Allegan could win out and
put a few 6 pointers on the board, therefore, SV's studs down low will have to step up
against some quality competetion if they want to bring it home against Allegan.
There will be a handful of evenly matched, big time matchups in the lower weights.
Most notably is 112 and 119 which should feature top 4 ranked wrestlers
in D3 going at it with Simaz/Suitor and Poffenberger/Wass. In a dual like this those
two matches could end up being the deciding factor, so they will surely be as high
pressure of a match as you will see in high school wrestling.
These teams match up very closely in the light and middle weights but Swan Valley
can probably count on wins at 125/130 with Germaine & Theile and then at 145
with Jeske. Allegan should be able to count on 171-285. The rest are pretty much
up for grabs.
103 SV is probably favored with Jared Flores, however, Robbie Wilson is a state qualifier and cannot be overlooked. 112/119, as mentioned, should be a couple amazing matches. At 135 Allegan could bump Garrett Smith and possibly get a almost certain win, or Krchatovich vs Flores would probably be a toss up. 140 is another swing match between two state qualifiers with Matt Smith and Lamson. Jeske at 145 keeps Smith down on Lamson and ensures SV a big win at 145. At 152/160 your looking at two other toss ups with state qualifiers Smythe/Beebe and Christman/Bell, then Rizgallah, Sousley and the Allegan upperweights should clean house.
Weights that Allegan can count on - (5) 135, 171, 189, 215, 285
Weights that Swan Valley can count on - (3) 125, 130, 145
Toss ups (6) - 103, 112, 119, 140, 152, 160 (all weights that both teams feature state qualifiers)
So there you have it, with 6 toss up weights that should feature two state qualifiers going at it, this will be a great dual with a tremendous amount of talent and ability coming from both squads. D3 is so tough, however, that both of these teams could very well lose in the semis and make this whole write up pointless.
Our Pick: Allegan +3
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