2011 MHSAA Team State Finals Preview
---Division 2---
February 25-26
Kellogg Arena - Battle Creek
By Steve Widzinski
Michigan Grappler High School Analyst
QuarterFinals
Friday, 7:45
#1 St Johns vs #8 Crestwood
Outlook: Currently ranked fifteenth in the nation by Intermat, St
Johns comes is a heavy favorite to repeat as state champions in
Division 2. The Red Wings road to a second consecutive state title
will start in the quarterfinals against Dearborn Heights Crestwood.
Crestwood will struggle to matchup with the immense firepower of
St Johns who should cruise to a victory in this opening round
matchup.
Our Pick: St Johns +50
#4 Lowell vs #5 Lakeshore
Outlook: This #4 vs #5 seed matchup should be one of the better
dual meets at Kellogg Arena on Friday. After a slow start to the
season Lowell has their full lineup intact and appears to be peaking
at the right time of the season. The Red Arrows may be tested
early in the quarterfinals against a very competitive Lakeshore team.
If the Lancers are healthy they should have a lot of opportunities to
win matches and make this interesting.
Our Pick: Lowell +10
#3 Tecumseh vs #6 Allegan:
Outlook: Another one of Division 2’s good quarterfinal matchups,
third seeded Tecumseh will have a big test early in a rematch of the
Michigan Duals finals from earlier this year. The Indians have put
together an impressive season and appear to be a strong candidate to reach the finals. However, they will have to get past a very good Allegan team to reach the semis. Tecumseh edged the Tigers in a close dual back in mid-January, however, Allegan has some guys capable of scoring big points and should be in the mix to win this dual and advance. Tecumseh’s depth gives them the advantage coming in, but Allegan should be able to juggle their lineup to get some matchups and compete for a spot in the semifinals.
Our Pick: Tecumseh +8
#2 Greenville vs #7 Holly
Outlook: Several impressive dual meet victories towards the end of the season have earned Greenville the second seed for this year’s Division 2 state finals. The Yellow Jackets road to the finals will start Friday night against Holly. The Bronchos have several excellent individuals capable of scoring big points who should keep Holly in the dual. However, Greenville appears to be the deeper of the two teams and should be favorites to reach the semifinals.
Our Pick: Greenville +18
Semifinals
Saturday, 11:45pm
Note - these are our projected semifinal matchups
#1 St Johns vs #4 Lowell
Outlook: While there is no question that St Johns is the favorite here, this is a dual that has the potential to be much closer than many people may think. Lowell appears to matchup with St Johns better than anyone else in Division 2, and has a shot to make this a very interesting dual. The Red Arrows have some fantastic individuals in their lineup that could give them a realistic chance to win seven matches against the Red Wings.
Even if Lowell can pick up seven wins, they will have a difficult time matching the bonus point output of St Johns. The Red Wing’s feature lineup features seven wrestlers currently ranked in the top two of their weight class as well as five additional state qualifiers. It is hard to see St Johns losing here, but Lowell is a team who knows how to win in the postseason and has a chance to make this interesting.
Key Matchups
--- 140 Payne Hayden STJ vs Gabe Morse LWL: The top two ranked 140 pounders in Division 2 will likely meet here in one of several premier individual matchups in this dual. If Lowell wants to compete with St Johns they cannot afford to lose any close matches, so a win here is a must for the Red Arrows.
--- 145 Travis Curley STJ vs Andrew Morse LWL: Like his brother Gabe, top ranked Andrew Morse will most likely wrestle the second-ranked wrestler in his weight class in this premier matchup. Curley has been the most improved wrestler on St. Johns team this year, entering this weekend with an undefeated record. If Curley can defeat Morse here, Lowell will have a very tough time coming up with enough points to keep this close.
--- 152 Jordan Wohlfert STJ vs Dan Fleet LWL: Assuming neither teams shifts their lineup, this match will be the third consecutive meeting between the top two ranked wrestlers in their weight class. Wohlfert comes in with a perfect record and should be the favorite to win here. If Lowell can win at 140 and 145 and then find a way to pull an upset here, they could find themselves in a close battle heading into the upperweights.
--- 215 Taylor Pemberton STJ vs Gabe Dean LWL: In order for Lowell to compete with St Johns, they will need to score some big points in the upperweights to counteract St Johns excellent lower weights. Dean is currently the top ranked 189 pounder in Division 2, and the Red Arrows will be counting on him to score a fall. There is also a chance St Johns may bump Pemberton to heavyweight where he will have a better chance to win.
Prediction: Despite the excellent individuals on Lowell’s team, it is hard to see them matching the firepower of St Johns. The Red Wings will likely score a ton of bonus points in the lower weights, and between Hayden, Curley, Wohlfert and Massa it is hard to see Lowell winning more than two matches in the middleweights. Even if Lowell can score some falls in the upperweights, St Johns should still be in control. The highlight of this dual should be the big individual matchups from 140-152. Expect St Johns to take care of business and advance to the finals where they will look to win their second consecutive title.
Our Pick: St Johns +14
#3 Tecumseh vs #2 Greenville
Outlook: With two very evenly matched teams, this dual has the chance to go down to the wire. Tecumseh has been one of the state’s most improved teams this season, and come into Battle Creek with a great shot to reach the finals. Tecumseh will have a tough early test in the quarters where they are set to square of with Allegan. If the Indians can score a win in the quarterfinals they will have an even tougher test waiting for them in the semis.
Following a big win over Lowell earlier this month, Greenville enters Battle Creek as the second seed in Division 2. The Yellow Jackets are led by a few studs in the upperweights and very strong supporting cast that makes them a favorite to reach the finals in Division 2. Like Tecumseh, Greenville relies on team depth as opposed to firepower and big points. This should be a low-scoring and exciting dual with the potential to go either way.
Key Matchups:
---135 Luke Gilmore GVL vs Ronnie Bechtol TEC: One of the most interesting individual matchups in this dual should take place in the 130/135 weight class. Gilmore is the top wrestler in the lower half of Greenville’s lineup. It seems likely that the Yellow Jackets will bump him up to 135 to avoid Tecumseh’s stud Jeff Jenkins. Depending on the flip, Tecumseh could potentially try to bump Jenkins to 135 as well to get that matchup. Assuming Gilmore meets Bechtol, this should still be one of this dual’s better individual matchups with two all-state caliber wrestlers.
--140 Josh Juarez GVL vs CJ Tripp TEC: One of the many toss-up matches in this dual with the potential to go either way, if these two meet it should be one of the better individual battles. Both guys are senior state qualifiers who will have a chance to score a big win for their team in this bout.
-- 171 Jordan Thomas GVL vs Tom Carney TEC: One of Michigan’s elite wrestlers, Thomas will be looking to score bonus points or a fall in this match. Carney is one of Tecumseh’s best wrestlers, but will have his hands full with the nationally ranked Thomas. There is also a possibility that Greenville will bump Thomas to 189 and use #2 ranked Adam Bonner in this match.
-- 189 Garret Viehl GVL vs Gavin Burstall TEC: Assuming that Greenville does not bump Thomas to 189, this should be another critical match in the upperweights. Burstall placed second at regionals last week, while Viehl reached the blood round in a bracket that consisted of six ranked wrestlers. Because Greenville is likely to score bonus points at 160, 171 and 285 it will be important to Tecumseh that Burstall picks up a win here.
Prediction: Of all of the semifinal matchups across the state, none seems harder to predict than this one. Neither team has any gaping holes, and there will be a lot of matches with a good chance to go either way. Bonus points will be hard to come by in this dual, and whichever team can be most efficient in their scoring will have the best chance to reach the finals.
Our Pick: Greenville +2
State Finals
Saturday, 4:00pm
#1 St Johns vs #2 Greenville
Coming into the season St Johns was expected to dominate there way to the state tournament and claim their second consecutive state title. So far all things have gone according to plan for the Red Wings, who have yet to lose a dual meet this year.
The Red Wings will look to put the finishing touches on a remarkable season in the state finals where they may see Greenville or Tecumseh.
Assuming Greenville stays true to their number two seed and beats Tecumseh in the semis, they will have their work cut out for them against St. Johns. The Yellow Jackets lost to the Red Wings by a single point in last year’s semifinals, and would love nothing more than to claim revenge by upsetting the Red Wings and winning a state championship. However, this will be a tall order for Greenville who does not have the same level of firepower as St Johns.
In the lower weights St Johns will be expected to dominate as they have all year. Hall, Schmitt, Schafer and Pennell are among Michigan’s best, and should all pick up some serious bonus points for the Red Wings. It will be interesting to see how St Johns weighs their wrestler in here. After spending most of the season at 119 and 125, Schafer and Pennell bumped to 125 and 130 for individual districts. There is definitely a chance they will be back down to 119 and 125 for the team tournament. Regardless, St Johns should cruise through the lower weights with little trouble. While Greenville has some pretty tough guys down low including Schmidt and Ward, they appear to be drastically overmatched against St Johns’ studs.
Greenville should have an opportunity to put some points at the board at 130/135. Gilmore is one of their best wrestlers and should have a good chance to win if they can keep him away from Pennell and get a matchup against Schafer. A potential DeLaFluente vs Bender matchup at 125 will probably be Greenville’s only other opportunity to win in the lower half of the lineup.
Expect the bonus points to keep coming in for St Johns in the middleweights. At 140 Juarez may have a shot to keep it close with Hayden, but after that it will be all St Johns. Curley, Wohlfert and Massa are all currently undefeated and should be able to dominate their opposition.
When the dual reaches the upperweights is probably where Greenville will have their best shot to be competitive. Ideally Greenville would probably like to bump Bonner to 171 to and keep him away from Massa. However, this may be hard to do, as St Johns could have opportunity to bump Massa to 171 as well depending on who has to present. It seems likely that Thomas will bump to 189 to take on Dominguez. He will be giving up a bit of size but should still be able to pick up at least a major and potentially a fall. The Yellow Jackets should also have a good shot to pin at 285, however this will likely be too little too late.
As good as Greenville is, the matchups don’t appear to be in their favor in this dual. The Yellow Jackets are a team that relies on depth and balance, and it has led them to a great deal of success this year. Unfortunately for Greenville, depth does not help much against St Johns. Even if the Yellow Jackets can find a way to fight off their backs and score some upsets, they appear to be a bit overmatched. Expect the Red Wings’ studs to power them through this dual en-route to their second consecutive state title.
Our Pick: St Johns 40 Greenville 21
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103
112
119
125
130
135
140
145
152
160
171
189
215
285
Greenville
Schmidt
Ward
Parmalee
DeLaFuente
Gilmore/Lehman
Gilmore/Lehman
Juarez/Orlowski
Juarez/Orlowski
Boni
Bonner
Thomas
Viehl
Harrington
Zimmer
St Johns
#1 Hall
#1 Schmitt
Schafer
Pennell/R.Bener
Pennell/R.Bender
C. Bender
#2 Hayden
#2 Curley
#1 Wohflert
#1 Massa
M.Schafer
Dominguez
Pemberton
Cooper
Projected lineups based on District wt classes
Taylor Massa brings his perfect career record to Battle Creek this weekend and will look to lead his star-studded Red Wings to a repeat title. Photo/Gary Williams
