2011 MHSAA Team State Finals Preview
---Division 3---
February 25-26
Kellogg Arena - Battle Creek
By Steve Widzinski
Michigan Grappler High School Analyst
QuarterFinals
Friday, 5:30pm
#1 Richmond vs #8 Roscommon
Outlook: Richmond enters the state tournament as the top seed and
defending state champions. The Blue Devils path to a second state
championship will start Friday night in the semifinals against
Roscommon. Roscommon is very solid for being the eight seed, and
should keep this one fairly competitive. Expect Richmond’s team
depth and experience to be the difference.
Our Pick: Richmond +24
#4 Allendale vs #5 Lake Odessa Lakewood
Outlook: Entering Friday night this appears to be the most evenly
matched first round dual meet in Division 3. After compiling a 30-1
record over the course of the season, Allendale comes in as the fourth
seed with a good opportunity to reach the semifinals. Allendale will
have a tough test in the quarters where they are slated to battle
against Lake Odessa Lakewood. Lakewood has yet to lose a dual
meet this year, and will look to keep that streak alive in the D3
quarterfinals. This has the potential to be the one of the closest
duals on the opening night of the state tournament.
Our Pick: Lakewood +3
#3 Lake Fenton vs #6 Otsego
Outlook: Lake Fenton will be one of the new faces at the state
meet in Division 3 this year. The Blue Devils have scored some
big wins this season and have the talent to compete for a state
title. Lead by an outstanding group of seniors, the Blue Devils will look to keep their title hopes alive in the first round when they take on a very good Otsego team. The Bulldogs are solid from top to bottom and should have an outside chance to pull an upset and advance to the semis.
Our Pick: Lake Fenton +9
#2 Dundee vs #7 Midland Bullock Creek
Outlook: Following runner-up finishes in the past three seasons Dundee will be aiming to claim a state title in Division 3 this year. The Vikings have one of the state’s most talented lineups and are lead by arguably the best senior class in Michigan. The Vikings first test will come in the quarters where they are set to take on Midland Bullock Creek. Bullock Creek pulled off an impressive upset at regionals last week where they took down fourth-ranked Chippewa Hills. Odds at the Lancers pulling another upset will be low, as Dundee is one of the premier teams across all divisions.
Our Pick: Dundee +23
Semifinals
Saturday, 11:45pm
#1 Richmond vs #5 Lakewood
Outlook: Thanks to a January win over Dundee, Richmond is the top seed in Division 3 and should have a pretty clear road to the finals. The defending state champs could potentially see either Lakewood or Allendale in the semis. Regardless of who they wrestle, Richmond is a dual meet oriented squad who will be heavy favorites to reach the finals.
Assuming they can get past Allendale, Lakewood will have the daunting task of taking on Richmond in the semifinals. While they don’t have the individual firepower of Dundee or Lake Fenton, Richmond is extremely deep and does a great job minimizing bonus points. Lakewood has yet to lose a dual meet this year, but will likely see that streak end in this semifinal matchup.
Key Matchups
--- 130 Darren Eaton LKW vs Garrett Edwards RCH: Both Eaton and Edwards are among the top individuals on their team and could possibly meet at 130 pounds. Lakewood can’t afford to lose any close matches if they are going to compete with Richmond, so this will definitely be a must win for them. Richmond tends to shift their lineup, so there is a good chance Eaton could see someone else such as Casey Martin here.
--- 140 Tucker Seese LKW vs Justin Russo RCH: Seese is coming off of a big performance at regionals that saw him score a pair of upset en-route to a regional title. Seese will look to carry that momentum over to Battle Creek where he could have a chance to score another upset and pick up a win for Lakewood. Like many of the middleweights, Richmond has a lot of options so it is hard to predict who will wrestle for the Blue Devils here.
Prediction: Lakewood has put together a great season and if they can reach the semifinals it will be a big achievement. However, It is hard to picture Lakewood having enough firepower to upset the defending champs in the semis. Richmond’s combination of depth and experience makes them a favorite to control this dual and advance to the finals.
Our Pick: Richmond +17
#2 Dundee vs #3 Lake Fenton
Outlook: Definitely the more intriguing matchup of the Division 3 semifinals, this is a dual with the potential to feature some big time individual matchups. Both teams appear to be very similar as far as their strengths and structure. Both Lake Fenton and Dundee are built around a strong cast of seniors who have had a great deal of individual success over the course of their career. Also, both teams have most of their key contributors in the middle of the lineup. 119-145 is a particularly strong weight range for both squads. An additional similarity between Lake Fenton and Dundee is their flexibility. Both teams have the ability to weigh their kids in at multiple different weights and get creative with their lineup.
Coming into the dual, what separates Dundee from Lake Fenton is depth and experience. Dundee is one of Michigan’s deepest teams, with fourteen regional qualifiers and several other very capable wrestlers in their lineup. Meanwhile, Lake Fenton has a few big question marks in their lineup coming into Battle Creek. Lake Fenton will need their lesser known wrestlers to find a way to step up and minimize bonus points in order to compete with Dundee. Experience will also be on Dundee’s side. The Vikings have reached the Division 3 state finals the past three years, while most of Lake Fenton’s wrestlers have never wrestled in Kellogg Arena before.
While Dundee appears to be a favorite, Lake Fenton definitely has the talent to make this interesting. The Blue Devils will need their studs in the middle to score some big bonus points and will need their upperweights to stay off their backs in order to challenge for a trip to the finals. Because both teams have the capability to juggle their lineups matchups will also play a big role in determining the outcome of this dual. Expect this
Key Matchups
--- 119 Travis Sproles DUN vs Todd Melick LF: Both of these guys are returning state finalists and there is a good chance they will battle in this dual. Melick is currently the top ranked 119 in D3 and will be the favorite to pick up a victory for Lake Fenton. Melick has proved himself to be an extremely dangerous wrestler, and if he can get a pin here it will be a big momentum boost for the Blue Devils.
--- 125 Joey White DUN vs Buddy Poyner LF: One of many potential great matches, White and Poyner are the top two top-ranked 125 pounders in Division 3. This would be a rematch from last years state semifinals where White narrowly defeated Poyner 7-6. If these two meet, expect to see an entertaining bout between two of Division 3’s top grapplers.
---- 140 Chris Rau DUN vs Justin Melick LF: Rau has been as low as 135 this year, while Melick has wrestled as high as 152 so this matchup could be a bit unlikely. However, both wrestlers have seen action at 140 lbs and could potentially meet in this dual. Both Rau and Melick won state titles last year, and are favorites to repeat this year. This would be another incredible matchup between two of Michigan’s top seniors.
Prediction: There is no denying Lake Fenton’s talent, however it is hard to see them matching up with Dundee. The Vikings have phenomenal depth and should not surrender many bonus points. Between 189, 215 and 285 Dundee will have a great chance to get at least two pins. Unless Lake Fenton’s studs find a way to come up with some huge bonus points, Dundee should be in good position to win this dual.
Our Pick: Dundee +7
State Finals
Saturday, 4:00pm
#1 Richmond vs #2 Dundee
Following a heartbreaking loss to Richmond in last years state finals,
Dundee came into the season ranked number one and favored to
win a state championship. In January, Richmond proved they were
capable of repeating as state champs, when they defeated Dundee
31-29 at the DCC Super Duals. Dundee was missing a few of their
key wrestlers in their previous meeting, and will be intent on avenging
their loss to the Blue Devils.
These two teams will come into the finals very familiar with each
other after meeting a dual earlier this year and then at individual
regionals last weekend. As far as firepower and big point scorers go,
Dundee definitely has the advantage. Rendina, Rau, White and
Heiserman are all favorites to win state titles, and have been racking
up tons of bonus points for the Vikings all year long. Richmond will
try to counter Dundee’s stud with their phenomenal balance and depth.
The Blue Devils are always opportunistic in dual meets, finding ways
to limit bonus points for the other team and score extra bonus points
for themselves. Richmond has a lot of options in their lineup, and should have a good game plan coming in.
In order to Richmond to compete with Dundee, they will need to get some wins in the early lower weights in order to counter Dundee’s powerful trio of White, Rendina and Rau. Richmond won last time around at 103, and returning state-champion Stephen Ireland will give them a likely win at 112. At 119 is where both teams will likely begin to get creative with their lineups. Richmond will have the option of Pitcel or Henke, while Dundee can use Sproles and Rojem. Sproles and Rojem will be slight favorites after outperforming their Richmond foes at regionals, however this is a winnable weight class for Richmond as well.
Once Dundee hits 125 pounds is where their lineup really becomes a nightmare for opposing coaches. The Vikings could use anyone including White, Rendina, Rau, Treharne and Grantham, Reinhart and Olson in this 125-152 range. All of these guys have wrestled at various weights this year and can be lined up nearly any way imaginable. Rau could be as low as 135, or wrestle all the way up to 145. White spent most of the year at 135, but dropped to 125 for individual districts. Regardless of how they are used one thing is certain, these wrestlers should be able to score big points for Dundee.
A great deal of Richmond’s top talent lies in the middle of their lineup as well. The Blue Devils qualified eight wrestlers for states in the 119-160 range. Like Dundee, they have various options of how to weigh their wrestlers in, and could feature several different lineups. Richmond’s lower weights are notorious for giving up minimal bonus points and coming out ahead in close matches. The Blue Devils will need Martin, Edwards, Baruth and Russo to perform well against Dundee’s studs in order to have a chance to win.
From 152 to 171 there should be some more close swing matches that will be pivotal for the Blue Devils especially. At 152 Dundee could possibly bump up Reinhart who would be a favorite against Alex Morang. At 160 Adrian Morang should have a tough match, where he will probably see either Newhouse or Warren. At 171 Gaffney will probably see Viers or possibly Newhouse. This is a match where Gaffney will probably be favored, but Dundee will also have a chance to win. Because of Dundee’s scoring ability in the lower weights, Richmond will need to win at least two out of these three matches.
In the upperweights Dundee should be able to count on top-ranked senior Justin Heiserman for bonus points and a potential fall. Marogen has been tough at heavyweight all year for Dundee, and should also have a good chance to win. Richmond best shot to score points will probably be Sebastian who was a regional champion at 215.
This is a dual where the determining factor will be who wrestles who. There are tons of different possibilities as to who could wrestle where in the lower weights, and the upperweights will be filled with close matches that could go either way. On paper Dundee appears to have the more powerful team and the favorite to win this dual. However, Richmond has proven again and again that they are a team who does their best wrestling in the postseason. Despite Richmond’s ability to win in big duals, it seems hard to see them winning seven matches and matching the bonus points of a healthy Dundee lineup. When you combine these two teams familiarity with each other and ability to maneuver their lineups, this appears to be the most intriguing championship final across the state.
Our Pick: Dundee 28, Richmond 24
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103
112
119
125
130
135
140
145
152
160
171
189
215
285
Richmond
Muzlakovich
Ireland
Pitcel/Henke
Martin
Edwards
Baruth
Russo
Al Morang
Ad Morang
Gaffney
Boyd
Sebastian/Clancy
Younk
Dundee
Kelietz
Wade
Rojem/Sproles
White
Rendina
Treharne
Rau
Reinhart
Olson
Newhouse/Warren
Viers
Heiserman
Sroufe
Marogen
Projected lineups based on District wt classes
