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2010 MHSAA Team State Preview

DIVISION 1

MHSAA Dual State Championships

Kellogg Arena - Battle Creek, MI

February 26-27

Seeds & QuarterFinal Pairings:

#1 Detroit Cath Central (24-4) vs Anchor Bay (29-12)

#4 Oxford (29-3) vs Holt (25-2)

#3 Rockford (20-5) vs Westland John Glenn (32-7)

#2 Hartland (27-3) vs Romeo (34-12)

---Quarterfinals---

#1 Detroit Catholic Central vs Anchor Bay

With 14 individual state qualifiers, DCC is a very

imposing task for Anchor Bay. The top seeded

Shamrocks are heavily favored to make the finals and it is tough to see Anchor Bay making any waves for them as DCC beat them 54-15 back in January. I see about 3 or 4 matches the Tars can win, however, they are significantly short of enough to make this dual interesting.

Our Pick: DCC +40

#4 Oxford vs Holt

This should be the best quarterfinal dual in Division 1 as both of these teams could have argued for the #4 seed. Oxford and Holt are both returning state finalists, Holt lost to Rockford in D1 last year while Oxford lost to Lowell in D2. This dual should be very close, I think regardless of who wins the dual each team will win at least 6 matches, which should put either team in position to win the dual. Bonus points and swing matches could be the difference but it looks like Oxford has more flexibility and depth throughout to maneuver their lineup and get the best matchups.

Our Pick: Oxford +9

#3 Rockford vs Westland John Glenn

This is a rematch from earlier this year when Rockford only beat John Glenn 35-30 at the EMU Duals. While that may give John Glenn some optimism coming in, keep in mind that this is not the same Rockford team from earlier in the year. They go into Battle Creek fresh off their upset over top ranked and nationally ranked Lowell and they have all their guns back in the lineup now, which has the Rockford faithful thinking repeat. If Rockford wrestles the way they did at Regionals against Lowell, then they should get through this quarterfinal without much greif, however, they cannoot overlook this tough John Glenn team or their repeat run will not make it to Saturday. Realistically, John Glenn could win 5 or 6 matches to make this interesting, however, Rockford's big guns up top should score a wealth of bonus points that will put this thing out of reach.

Our Pick: Rockford +21

#2 Hartland vs Romeo

Romeo made a nice run to get here, however, the fun will probably stop Friday afternoon as Hartland should be too much for them to handle. With Lowell out of the picture, Hartland is as likely to win this thing as anyone and they should roll through their quarterfinal dual with Romeo to set up a war with Rockford in the semis.

Our Pick: Hartland +32

--Semifinals--

#1 Detroit Catholic Central vs #4 Oxford

Oxford has some studs that should make them competetive with DCC at many of the weights, however, the Shamrocks have so much depth in their lower weights, that they should be able to move guys around and set them up to nearly sweep through the light weights. Oxford should be able to pick up some wins in the middle to upper weights, but the key for them to have any shot is for them to pull off wins down low, where they should be some big time matchups: 103- #1 Bade/ #4 Fagan (CC) vs #3 Cantera (O), 112- #3 Melick/Bade (CC) vs #7 Peasley (O). If Oxford can steal those weights they could make this exciting, but that will be a tall order against a couple of the best little guys in the state. These two met earlier this year with DCC winning 30-25, so an upset is not out of the question, however, if DCC plays their cards right they should be able to widen the gap a little this time around.

Our Pick: DCC +14

#2 Hartland vs #3 Rockford

Hartland beat Rockford earlier this year, however, as previously stated Rockford is wrestling much tougher now as opposed to earlier in the season as they are full strength with Jared Johnson at 112 and Jacob Scholten at 119. This dual should be one of the best semifinal duals across all divisions and the winner will have a great shot at winning in the finals as well. Hartland appears to have more depth throughout with 10 state qualifiers to Rockford's 7, however, Rockford has some major studs in their lineup, including 5 wrestlers currently ranked #1 or #2 in their lineup. Hartland will have to hold those studs to minimal points and pick up big wins where they can to repeat their win from earlier this season.

There are a handful of weights that could turn out to be monumental towards the outcome:

112 - #6 Kantola (H) vs Johnson (R) - Ross Kantola is now a 2x state qualifier and a solid 112lber so it will be interesting to see how freshman stud Jared Johnson will fare here. This is a weight that both teams will be looking to win, however, it is tough to predict because Johnson has not wrestled much this year, or at the high school level in general due to injury.

125 - #4 Monitz (H) vs #1 Byers/Scholten - In most dual action all year Byers has bumped to 130 for Rockford, however, with #5 Jeff Lopez down to 130 and 2x all-stater Monitz at 125, it may be force Rockford to keep Byers down to 125 and fellow state runner up Scholten down to 119. If they opt to bump Scholten it makes for what should be two toss ups with Monitz/Scholten and Byers/Lopez. However, keeping them down will open the door for Hartland to tack on bonus points at 130 with Lopez.

215 - #1 McDiarmid (H) vs #2 Stefanski - This is a matchup people have been wanting to see all year with these two returning state champs. It didnt happen last time around as Rockford bumped Stefanski, and the Rams will likely do the same thing this time around as they could ensure a win at 285 by bumping and would likely lost 285 by keeping Stefanski down. The coin flip could be huge here as if Hartland wins they can force Rockford to send out first at this weight and inevitably force the McDiarmid-Stefanski match which would benefit them as they have depth at both weights with two other returning state qualifiers.

With all the options that both teams have it is tough to predict how things will shake out. On paper, I see each team winning 7 matches a piece, which then would boil down to bonus points. If Rockford wins the toss and gets Stefanski away from McDiarmid I think Rockford has the advantage.

Our Pick: Rockford +2

--Finals--

#1 Detroit Catholic Central vs #3 Rockford

The Division 1 Finals will surely be an amazing dual between two

powerhouse programs, regardless of who wins the Rockford -

Hartland match. Rockford probably matches up a little better

with the Shamrocks because they can expoit the DCC uperweights

a little more than Hartland and DCC downed Hartland 34-21 back

in January.

DCC has a wealth of options down low starting at 103. They can

bump Bade to 112, which would create a big time matchup of very

talented freshman with Jared Johnson. That bump would also

make a toss up between state qualifiers VanRooyen & Fagan at

103. 119 and 125 creates an interesting situation as well. The

allure of a #1 vs #2 Mooradian/Scholten match would make for

some great Battle Creek drama, however, both teams have options.

DCC could be bumped here with all-state Melick up at 119 and Mooradian at 125, However, that could set up a Byers-Mooradian battle of #1 ranked wrestlers, which would be equally exciting as the Mooradian/Scholten match. Either way those lower weights shake out, there is bound to be a great matchup somewhere.

If DCC keeps everyone down to weight then they should win the first four, however, they could then possibly surrender a couple weights in the lower weights that they usually dominate. Regardless of how DCC plays their cards, they should fare well down low and win the majority of the matches up to 152. Rockford will have to get those points back up top and they should get major bonus points out of Johnson and Dorulla at 160/171 or 171/189 if they bump. Stefanski vs Kinville would be a huge matchup at 215, however, it might not happen as one of the parties involved could opt to bump away and swap big wins.

With all the options, especially for DCC, this is tough to predict. With both teams staying mostly down to weight and making little moves I have DCC winning 8 matches and Rockford winning 6. There are a ton of potential close matchups that could arise and potential bumps that could change things. No matter what happens with weight classes and matchups, the intense, high octane action will be amazing and it will be the essence of what Team Dual Meet wrestling is all about.

Our Pick: DCC 27, Rockford 25