2010 MHSAA Team State Preview
DIVISION 3
MHSAA Dual State Championships
Kellogg Arena - Battle Creek, MI
February 26-27
Seeds & QuarterFinal Pairings:
#1 Dundee (36-1) vs Remus Chippewa Hills
#4 Allendale (29-2) vs Edwardsburg
#3 Swan Valley (30-3) vs Portland
#2 Richmond (45-4) vs Roscommon (29-7)
---Quarterfinals---
#1 Dundee vs Chippewa Hills
Chipp Hills had to be close to landing the #4 seed,
and after not getting seeded they drew the worst
possible first round matche with top ranked Dundee.
Chipp Hills features 7 state qualifiers and they are
traditionally strong team, however, Dundee will likely
be far too much for them to handle. The highlight of
this dual will be a potential state finals preview of #1
Travis Sproles (D) vs #2 Zack Cooper (CH), other than that Dundee should steamroll through the lightweights and make relatively easy work of a good team.
Our Pick: Dundee +29
#4 Allendale vs Edwardsburg
Edwardsburg, making their first trip to Battle Creek in this century, received the best possible draw to keep their run going. Allendale was ranked some of this season in our team rankings and features 6 state qualifiers as opposed to Edwardsburg's 3. There are a lot of question mark weights in here, however, it is difficult to see the Eddies knocking off Allendale, but you never know, an Edwardsburg win would be the definition of March Magic.
Our Pick: Allendale +16
#3 Swan Valley vs Portland
Swan Valley showed that they are still contenders in D3 as they rolled through a tough regional last week. Portland snuck in through a relatively weak Regional and there three state qualifiers will likely not be enough to match up Swan Valley, who is led by 9 state qualifiers. Swan Valley's upperweights are vulnerable, if Portland can wrestle well up top they can make the score respectable, however, SV's powerhouse lightweights will likely put this away.
Our Pick: Swan Valley +35
#2 Richmond vs Roscommon
This dual, along with the other D3 quarterfinal matches, will likely not be very suspenseful. Regardless of what weight they start at, Richmond will likely be dominant from start to end. Roscommon may be able to pull of a few wins, but this should be a rout by one of the state's best teams.
Our Pick: Richmond +39
--Semifinals--
#1 Dundee vs #4 Allendale
Dundee should continue to roll on through to the finals with a sound win over Allendale here. Allendale could realistically win 4 or 5 matches if they wrestle well, however, even if they make moves and win the close ones, Dundee should still have enough big wins and bonus points to win the dual without much worry.
Our Pick: Dundee +21
#2 Richmond vs #3 Swan Valley
This should be a good semifinal matchup between to D3 powerhouses. Richmond has emerged not only as a D3 contender, but one of the top teams in the state across all divisions. Both of these teams are stacked in the lower weights and for Swan Valley to have any shot at knocking off Richmond they will have to score some upsets down low and win the close ones. Richmond has much more depth than SV and has more options with how to maneuver their lineup. Richmond has 13 state ranked state qualifiers in their lineup.
Pretty much every match from 103 through 130, with the addition of a couple others, is a toss up of state ranked wrestlers and many of them met at Invdividual Regionals last weekend:
103 - #4 Ireland (R) vs #7 Ewald (SV)
112 - #7Cattera/#8 Pitcel (R) vs #9 Flores (SV)
119 - #5 Rivard (R) vs Suitor (SV)
125 - #3 Russo vs #4 Thiele (SV)
130 - #7 Baruth (R) vs #2 Wass (SV)
145 - #2 Henke (R) vs #4 Beebe (SV)
152 - #6 Morang (R) vs #1 Lamson (SV)
These 7 weights include almost all of Swan Valley's top wrestlers and 5 of them enter their match as an underdog based on their regional finish from last weekend. If Richmond wins the 5 they are favored in it would all but eliminate SV from contention. One big question here is the status of BJ Suitor. The 3x state champ was eliminated from Regionals last weekend and their has been word that an injury played a major part in that, which raises the question of whether or not he will compete for the last time in his prep career this weekend. In all, Richmond appears to have to many weapons throughout their lineup for SV to beat them, however, even though a SV win looks to be unlikely, their will surely be some drama and intense matches, especially in those lower weights.
Our Pick: Richmond +10
--Finals--
#1 Dundee vs #2 Richmond
This is the Division 3 Finals match that everyone wants
to see. Traditionally the best team in the state hails from
Division 1 or sometimes Division 2, but this year one could
argue that the winner of this dual might be the best team
in the state. Both teams are packed with ranked wrestlers
and state qualifiers throughout. Richmond has 13 state
qualifiers, Dundee boasts 12. Richmond has 13 wrestlers
ranked top 10 in ther weight class, Dundee has 9. Where
Dundee possibly lacks in overall depth, they make up for
with heavy duty, big gun firepower behind three current
#1 ranked wrestlers and two #2 ranked wrestlers.
Richmond has two guys currently ranked 2nd and no #1s.
Both teams are loaded in the lower weights, however,
Dundee relies on their lower weights more as they have only one wrestler ranked above 152lbs and two state qualifiers above 152. The interesting thing about this matchup and both of these teams is that they both have about a thousand options down low in terms of who to wrestle at each weight and who to weigh in where.
Dundee beat Richmond 31-16 earlier this year, and looking at them on paper, it is difficult to see how Dundee managed to win by that large of a margin. I do not have the box score from their earlier duals, so I am going to look at this matchup based on what I have seen at the District and Regional level. Here is a weight by weight breakdown of the possiblities in the lower weights and my predictions:
103 - straight up, Ireland vs Sproles this is the weight where we know what we are going to see. Ireland is undefeated this year (seeing limited action, only 23 matches), while freshman phenom Sproles is the #1 ranked wrestler heading into states. This will be a huge, possible swing match for the dual and also has individual state implications. I will take Sproles by decision, Dundee leads 3-0
112 - Both teams have two state qualifiers, Cattera/Pitcel for Richmond and Atchley/Wade for Dundee. Both teams have a couple guys at 119 as well, so bumping here seems unlikely for either team. Cattera should go against Atchley and Richmond is favored. Tied 3-3
119 - This is where things get interesting. Dundee has #2 Joe White as well as returning state placer Brandon Treharne. Treharne didnt make it out of a tough regional, but he is a very good wrestler capable of competing with just about anyone. He has been up at 125 for much of the season in Dundee's lineup, allowing for them to bump Rau. With him down to 119 now, maybe Dundee will keep him here and bump White. There is also a possibilty they keep White down because #5 Josh Rivard is no joke so they may want to do whatever neccesarry to secure a win here. Richmond also has #9 Garrett Edwards who knocked off BJ Suitor at regionals, but they are so deep with two state qualifiers at 125 as well that they may not need Edwards' services this weekend. If White stays down, he wins a close match. Dundee leads 6-3
125 - Dundee and Richmond have choices to make here. Richmond has a bit of a hole at 140, so they make opt to bump at some point. With Rau and Rendina looming from 125-135, Richmond's goal has to be to win whichever weight does not feature either of those two. If they keep White at 119, then Treharne is probably their best option at 125, however, he would have to get through either #3 Justin Russo, who beat Chris Thiele at Regionals, or #9 Casey Martin, who is a very good technical wrestler. If Treharne goes 125, then I would think Richmond might consider going with Martin here, and bumping Russo with Rau to try and enable themselves to win both weights. Regardless of what Richmond does, I think Treharne will be the 125lber and Richmond should be favored. Tied 6-6
130 - This is where the Rau bump pays off for Dundee. They have also weighed Rau in at 130 at times this year and bumped him to 135, leaving #1 Rendina at 130. I am not sure if they will try to do that this weekend or if that is beneficial for them, but either way they should be favored here. Baruth lost 4-2 to #2 Wass at Regionals, so bonus points should be hard to come by. Dundee leads 9-6
135 - Dundee has #9 Liam Grantham here, however, they have wrestled Rendina/Rau up at 135 for alot of duals, and they will likely do that this weekend. Rendina is a monster on top, capable of scoring bonus points on anyone, I would expect him to be good for a major decision here. Dundee leads 13-6.
140 - Big hole here for Richmond, which is why I would not count out them using Martin at 125, bumping Russo to 130, Baruth to 135, and Treend to 140. If they are going to lost to Rau and Rendina at 135 anyway, they might as well bump and secure a win at 140 over Grantham or state qualifier Bickley. However, this runs the risk of Martin losing at 125 to Treharne, which would be a wash. I say they figure out a way to bump Treend even if that means voiding to Rendina. Dundee leads 13-9.
145 - This is one of Richmond's horses as returning state runner up Brian Henke has been out of his mind this year and is currently 43-0. Dundee has #9 Brandon Desbrough here, but he should not be able to stay up with Henke, who beat #4 Matt Beebe 14-1 at Regionals last weekend. Henke will likely be looking for bonus. Tied 13-13.
152 - Big match here with two ranked wrestlers. #4 Snook and #6 Morang are very close on paper, I am not sure if they wrestled when these teams met earlier this year but either way this is a toss up that both teams will be counting on. Dundee leads 16-13.
160 - Richmond's other returning State Finalist currently ranked #2 Roger Crump should be looking for big points here. I am not sure how weak Dundee is here, but if they are not very good, then Richmond may bump to ensure a win out of Morang here and then let Crump take care of Hekkila at 171 (should still score bonus points). Richmond leads 19-13
171 - If Crump stays down, then #7 Boldray should still give Richmond the advantage at this weight. If Crump bumps then they should be looking for bonus points here. Richmond leads 22-13
189 - Heiserman is the big favorite here. If Richmond bumps they give themselves a shot at limiting bonus points, but I am going to predict base on them keeping Crump down at 160, which would be big points for Dundee here. Richmond leads 22-19
215/285 - Neither team is extremely strong up top. Richmond has a regional qualifier Sebastian at 215, however, due to my lack of knowledge I am not going to attemp to predict these last two weights. Either way you look at Dundee will need to muster something here based on what I have happening so far.
Well there you have it, a very long winded prediction and outlook of this dual meet. These teams have so many options that I may be looking at his entirely wrong, but who knows? We will find out in two days at Kellogg!
Keep in mind that there is only one weigh in this weekend, on Friday before the Quarterfinals. Therefore, however each team weighs in on Friday is how they must maneuver their lineup from for Saturday's Finals. Dundee, with a pretty clear road to the finals, will have an advantage in that they can weight their wrestlers in exactly how they want to be situated for Richmond and Richmond alone. Richmond, meanwhile, will have to weigh in with Swan Valley in the back of their minds as they cannot overlook their semifinal matchup. Therefore, this may give a slight advantage to Dundee.
Regardless of the outcome, there is nowhere I would rather be Saturday afternoon that watching this dual unfold (along with the other three state championship duals). This is why the state tournament seeding is so beneficial, it would be a crime if these two had to wrestle on Friday in the quarterfinals.
Our Pick: Richmond 25, Dundee 22
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103
112
119
125
130
135
140
145
152
160
171
189
215
285
Richmond
#4 Ireland
#7 Cattera/#8 Pitcel
#5 Rivard/#9 Edwards
#3 Russo/#9 Martin
#7 Baruth
#5 Treend
#2 Henke
#6 Morang
#2 Crump
#7 Boldray
Sebastian
Dundee
#1 Sproles
#10 Atchley/Wade
#2 White/Treharne
#1 Rau/White/Treharne
#1 Rendina/Rau
#9 Grantham/Rendina
Bickley
#9 Desbrough
#4 Snook
Hekkila
#2 Heiserman
Projected lineups based on Districts
Dundee and Richmond are lineup for what should be a classic finals matchup. Dundee has three #1 ranked individuals including Joe Rendina (left) while Richmond has 13 overall ranked wrestlers including #2 Brian Henke (right)
