Michigan Grappler's 2009 Senior National Breakdown
3/27/09
Finals Predictions
103 - Brenan Lyon (MI) over John Bention (NC)
112 - Avi Freidman (MD) over Robert Dyar (AL)
119 - Vinnie Dellafave (NJ) over Tyler Cox (WY)
125 - Jarrod Patterson (OK) over Michael Garafalo (VA)
130 - Justin Lavalle (MN) over Henry Yorba (CA)
135 - Kodie Silvestri (NJ) over CJ Napier (KS)
140 - Collin Palmer (OH) over Craig Eifert (MI)
145 - Joey Napoli (PA) over Zach Clemente (NY)
152 - Brandon Zeerip (MI) over John Greisheimer (NY)
160 - John Nicholson (IA) over Kyle Lang (OH)
171 - Ed Ruth (NJ) over Ethan Lofthouse (UT)
189 - Max Huntley (NJ) over Derrick Borlie (VA)
215 - Nick Pica (CA) over Brandon Palik (PA)
285 - Ken Altarac (NY) over Jeremy Johnson (OH)
Weight-by-Weight Preview
103
Favorite to win - Brenan Lyon (MI)
Top Contenders - John Bention (NC), Brian Butler (GA)
Michigan's best best - Lyon
Outlook - There is obviously not usually many guys that are still 103 by their senior year, which explains why there only 11 entries at this weight as of March 26th. Ithaca, MI senior Brenan Lyon is hands down the most nationally accomplished entry at this weight. Lyon has been a double all-american in Fargo the past three summers and has 6 AA plaques to his name thus far in his career. He is finally a full-sized 103lber and he should be a force to be reckoned with at this weight.
112
Favorite to win - Avi Freidman (MD)
Top Contenders - Chasen Tolbert (UT), Robert Dyar (AL), Tim Thurston (NC), Steven Romero (WA)
Others to watch - Estevan Cabanas (CA)
Michigan's best bet - no entries
Outlook - The top 4 finishers from last year's NHSCA Jr National 103lb bracket are back here led by returning cahmp and 2x MD state champ Freidman. Tolbert, Romero, and Thurston were the 2nd-4th finishers. Dyar did not place here last year as a junior, however, he was 5th in Fargo at Junior Freestyle 105 last summer and he finished 2nd at Super 32's in a tough 112lb weight, so he is seasoned on the national level and should be capable of contending. This is another small weight with only 34 entries and unfortunately no Michigan guys entered as all of our best 112lbers are underclassmen.
119
Favorite to win - Vinnie Dellafave (NJ)
Top Contenders - Tyler Cox (WY), Sean Boyle (NJ), Kyle Waldo (MI), Tyler Biscaha (NJ)
Michigan's best bet - Waldo
Outlook - The top 4 or 5 at this weight are all very good. Dellafave is a 2x state champ and one of New Jersey's top wrestlers. He also took 4th in Fargo last year at a tough 119lb weight class. Boyle is a stud as well hailing from prep powerhouse Blair Academy. Boyle was 1st at the Beast of the East this year and runner up at the Walsh Ironman, so his national expierence make him a threat to win this tournament. Waldo will not be the only 4xer in this weight as 4x Wyoming champ Tyler Cox should be a top contender as well. Cox has appeared inconsistent at times, however, he has beaten Ryan Mango in freestyle and folkstyle in the past year, so he is capable of winning this tournament and he will be looking to prove himself this weekend. Another tough NJ guy to watch is Biscaha, who won a state title last year 103 and was 4th at the NHSCA Juniors at 112 last spring.
From a Michigan perspective Waldo is our best bet and with a top 4 finish he could really prove himself and go out in style. Another Michigan guy to keep an eye on is Jared Germaine, who is dropping down to 119 after wrestling 125 all last year. Germaine has the athletic ability to compete with just about anyone at this weight and this could be his coming out party if he can get a good draw and string some big wins together.
125
Favorite to win - Martin Gonzales (CA)
Top Contenders - Jarod Patterson (OK), Michael Garafolo (VA), Eric Dunnett (NJ), Pat Owens (PA),
Others to watch - Brad Wisdom (MO), Joe Colon (IA)
Michigan's best bet - Cam Amaties/JT Gustin
Outlook - 2x California state champ Martin Gonzales was 2nd at this event last year as a Junior at 119lbs and looks to me like the top candidate to win this weight. Patterson is a 4x Oklahoma state champ, but does not have a whole lot of national expierence so this could be a test for him. Look out for Garafalo, who is 3xer from Virginia and placed 3rd at the Beast and Super 32s. 2x Iowa champ Joe Colon has a good amount of big time national expierence as well, placing at Fargo and the NHSCA Jrs last spring.
There are 4 Michiganders entered in this weight. 2x D1 champ Amaties has little national exposure and he could break through with a big weekend here. Amaties is a strong, techinically sound wrestler who has beaten some big name guys in state like Rickard and Byers, so he should be capable of competing on the national stage. Gustin busted out at states as he pinned through a deep 125lb weight class in Division 3, including 1st period falls over Germaine and Joe Rendina in the semis and finals. Gustin has proved that he is dangerous and he may be capable of knocking off a big gun in this weight. The fate of Amateis/Gustin may lie in how they are drawn into the bracket, if either of them catch a Patterson/Gonzales type guy in the 1st couple rounds they may drop to the consolations and have a long road back to being an all-american.
130
Favorite to win - Justin Lavalle (MN)
Top Contenders - Henry Yorba (CA), Jeremy Goree (OK), Jake Vaughn (OH), Jake Walters (MI), Erik Spjut (TX)
Michigan's best bet - Walters/Dan Osterman
Outlook - Lavalle is arguably the most nationally accomplished here. He took 5th at junior freestyle 125 in Fargo last year and he is a 2x MN state champ. California champ Yorba could be a major player here as well - he is coming in fresh off his state finals upset over junior freestyle runner up Jose Mendoza. 3x Oklahoma champ Goree will be looking to prove himself as he has had little national exposure in the past. Jake Vaughan of Ohio lost to freshman phenom Felipe Martinez in the OH state tournament, however, he is a returning NHSCA Jr Champ and he beat some big name guys here as a junior last spring.
Both of Michigan's contenders here hail from St Johns and they are both capable of earning AA status. Walters has been on fire the past year, taking 4th in Jr Greco last summer in Fargo and finishing 5th at Super 32s last fall, so he should be confident coming in. Osterman has always been on the brink and this weekend he may finally break through and place at a big time national tournament. Both Walters and Osterman can compete with anyone in this weight.
135
Favorite to win - CJ Napier (KS)
Top Contenders - Ian Paddock (NY), Kodie Silvestri (NJ), Kendric Maple (KS), Tony James (MO)
Michigan's best bet - Pete Rendina/Andrew Schutt
Outlook - This weight is pretty wide open as the consensus #1/#2 D. Taylor/E. Grajales are not on the entry list. Napier, Silvestri, and Paddock all placed top 6 at either Fargo last summer or NHSCA Jrs last spring and they are all pretty evenly matched. Maple and James are 2xers that have flown under the radar a little nationally and could break out this weekend.
Rendina and Schutt have both gotten out and competed nationally, however, neither of them have had real breakthrough performances yet. They both seem to be more comfortable with folkstyle as opposed to freestyle, so this weekend may be a god time for one of the two to make a name for themself. Rendina beat Schutt at states a few weeks back, but they are pretty evenly matched so don't be surprised if they both go equally deep into this tournament. After the top 2 or 3, this weight is open for the taking.
140
Favorite to win - Collin Palmer (OH)
Top Contenders - Max Ortega (NM), Nick Hagar (WI), Craig Eifert (MI), Kyle Dake (NY)
Others to watch - Kyle Bradley (MO), Mike Nevinger (NY), Kevin Timothy (FL)
Michigan's best bet - Eifert
Outlook - This weight features three 4x state champs led by Palmer, who will be one of the top wrestlers in attendance this weekend across all weights. Ortega is a 4x New Mexico champ and he won the NHSCA Jr title at 140 last year. Dake is a NY state champ and he won NHSCA Juniors at 130 last year. The other 4xer is Hagar from Wisconsin. Hagar finished 4th at NHSCA Jrs last year behind Ortega and he is the least nationally renowned of the 4xers here, however, Senior Nationals has been a springboard for guys like him in the past. Eifert is 3xer from Mason, Michigan and while his talent is well known in Michigan, his only real big national level wins came in Disney last summer. Palmer and Ortega are the big two in this weight, however, Hagar, Dake and Eifert are all guys capable of finishing near the top who will be looking to knock off Palmer.
145
Favorite to win - Joey Napoli (PA)
Top Contenders - Zach Clemente (NY), Kellen Bounous (MO), Scott Sakaguchi (CA), Brian Sewalt (NY)
Others to watch - Alex Rodriguez (CA), Cody Bollinger (CA), Jake OHara (PA), Johnny Watson (NC)
Michigan's best bet - Robert Nash
Outlook - This is a pretty deep weight led by a couple guys with some big time national level wins. Napoli and Clemente appear to be the top two here followed by a handful of guys who all appear capable of challenging them. Napoli was a state runner up this year behind Dylan Alton in PA and he won it as a junior. He won the Beast of The East this year and he was 2nd at Super 32s (behind Jackson Morse). Clemente has a ton of big match expierence as he was a double all-american at Junior Nationals in Fargo last summer and he is a 2x NY champ. Another guy who might contend here is 3x Missouri state champ Bounous who was 3rd at NHSCA Juniors last spring. The top 3 guys from California could all place here led by state champ Sakaguchi who placed at NHSCA Juniors last spring at this weight. The only 4xer listed in the entries is Johnny Watson of North Carolina.
The only Michigan wrestler entered is Division 1 state champ Robert Nash of Roseville. Nash should be a huge 145lber as he was one a good sized 152lber this year at the state meet. Nash is a tall, strong wrestler who has had hardly any natinoal expierence to this point in his career and this weekend could be a good chance for himself to prove himself. If he can win 3 or 4 matches in this weight it would be pretty impressive because this looks like one of the tougher weights.
152
Favorite to win - Brandon Zeerip (MI)
Top Contenders - Chris Urquizo (CA), John Greisheimer (NY), Hayden Countrymen (AL), Jonathan McGookey (OH)
Others to watch - Kyle Meyer (MO), Bryce Busler (PA), Cody Compton (MO), Tigran Adzehemyan (CA)
Michigan's best bet - Zeerip
Outlook - This is one of the more wide open weights in the tournament with no real heavy favorites. Zeerip came on strong last year in Disney with some big wins and if he could really emerge this weekend by winning this weight. Urquizo won the California state title this year over Junior Freestyle AA Adzehemyan while Countrymen and Meyer are both 4x champs. 2x NY champ Greisheimer was runner up at NHSCA Juniors last year while Ohio Champ McGookey was 4th and Meyer was 8th, so there are a lot of wrestlers in this weight who have had sucess on the national stage before.
Aside from Zeerip, look for 2x D3 champ Calib Rought and D1 runner up Koort Leyrer to possibly make some noise at this weight as well. Rought all-americaned in Fargo two summers ago, so his ability to compete nationally is proven and Leyrer is a tall, somewhat unorthodox wrestler who may be capable of slowing down the big guns and pulling off an upset this weekend.
160
Favorite to win - John Nicholson (IA)
Top Contenders - Corey Lear (PA), Kyle Lang (OH), Tyler Caldwell (KS), Ryan LeBlanc (NY), Jimmy Sheptock (PA)
Others to watch - Anthony Saule (NJ), Kevin Steinhaus (MN), Dan Yates (MI), Kyle Detmer (KS), Stephen West (CA)
Michigan's best bet - Yates
Outlook - This is one of the largest and deepest weights in the tournament. Nicholson is coming off his 2nd state title in which he downed Derek St John, who was ranked #1 in the country by many preseason polls, and he has to be the early favorite to win this weight. Ohio state champ Kyle Lang has been on all year, finishing runner up at the Beast and Ironman tournaments. Lang has some big time wins this year and he is the top candidate to challenge Nicholson. PA state champ Lear has a ton of quality expierence placing 3rd at Super 32s, 3rd at the Powerade tournament, and winning the King of The Mat tournament. 4x Kansas state champ Caldwell will definitely be a player in this weight as well, as will returning NHSCA Jr 152 champ Sheptock and runner up Steinhaus. LeBlanc is a 2x New York state champ and he was runner up at NHSCA Jrs last year in this weight. Throw in state finalists West (CA) and Saule (NJ), along with nationally seasoned Kansas champ Detmer and 3x Michigan champ Yates and you are looking at a very deep, competetive weight. Many of the all-american spots in this weight could boil down to how the early round draws shake out.
This weekend will be a huge test for Yates, who has solidified himself as one of Michigan's best wrestlers but has yet to prove himself nationally. Another Michigander with something to prove will be 2008 D1 runner up Nick Kacznowski who was undefeated this year before missing the state finals run due to injury.
171
Favorite to win - Ed Ruth (NJ)
Top Contenders - Ethan Lofthouse (UT), Joey Sheridan (OK), Brendan Ard (NJ), Nick Heflin (OH), Andrew Clement (VA), Caleb Colb (PA)
Others to watch - Stephen Doty (MO), Shane Milam (MD)
Michigan's best bet - Phil Joseph
Outlook - 171 features one of the potential highlight matches of the tournament with Ruth and Lofthouse. They are both widely considered among the top three 171lbers in the country. Ruth is an athletic specimen who beat Lofthouse earlier this year in the Ironman finals and he has also beaten Ohio super sophomore Chris Phillips this year. Lofthouse is a 4x Utah champ and has been very successfull in Fargo that past few years. Ruth/Lofthouse poses an interesting style clash as Ruth is explosive when he chooses to attack while Lofthouse is more of a grinder and he is accomplished at greco so his handfighting and pummeling is solid.
2x NJ champ Ard, 3x OK champ Sheridan, PA champ Colb, and OH champ Heflin should all be in the hunt to challenge Lofthouse and Ruth here. Andrew Clement won the Super 32s in the fall, beating Doty in the finals, while Colb and Milam were 3rd and 4th placers from 160 at the NHSCA Juniors last year. This weight appears pretty evenly matched after the top two and anyone knocking them off before the finals would be a big upset.
Michigan D2 champ Phil Joseph has not lost a match all year, however, he has no national expierence and that may hurt him this weekend against some top tier, nationally seasoned guys. With a good draw, however, Joseph may be capable of stringing some wins together.
189
Favorite to win - Max Huntley (NJ)
Top Contenders - Jonathan Becker (NJ), Derrick Borlie (VA), Reid Chivers (WA), Christian Boley (NY), Boaz Beard (KS)
Others to watch - Ryan Loder (CA), Nick Mills (OH)
Michigan's best bet - Nick Whitenburg
Outlook - Blair Academy's Huntley comes in on a roll after winning a National Prep Championship, Beast of the East, and Ironman in the past 6 months. There are a few very qualified, nationally proven candidates to challenge Huntley this weekend. Becker and Borlie have both made names for themselves nationally. Borlie is a 2x VA champ and he won the Super 32s in the fall. Boley finished 2nd in NY to Austin Meys, who is not currently on the entry list, but is the returning champ at this tournament after winning the NHSCA Jr 189lb title last year. Two guys who have been dominant in their state but have yet to prove themselves nationally are 4x KS champ Beard and 3x WA champ Chivers. Nick Mills was runner up at Super 32s in the fall and although Loder had a rough state tournament, finishing 5th in California, he was a junior freestyle all-american last summer in Fargo and has proven his ability to compete against the top guys in the country.
Both of Michigan's entries in this weight are talented, athletic 189lbers capable of being competetive this weekend. D2 champ Dillon Kern is a tall, strong, athletic 189lber and his sucess at Disney last summer should give him some confidence going into this tournament. Whitenburg has not gotten out much nationally, however, he beat Kern this year and is very athletic and slick for a 189lber. His ability to wrestle from all positions make him a threat to make some noise this weekend. Nationally ranked 2x state champ Kyler Elsworth from Goodrich is not on the entry list, which is unfortunate because it would have been nice to see if he could contend with guys like Becker, Huntley, and Borley.
215
Favorite to win - Brandon Palik (PA)
Top Contenders - Nick Pica (CA), Tony Nelson (MN), Jon Weber (VA), Ben Krakower (NJ)
Others to watch - Luke Machiaroli (AZ), Josh Wood (CA), Chris Drummond (DE)
Michigan's best bet - no entries
Outlook - This should be a highly contested weight with a strong field of talented, proven big men. PA state champ Palik was 4th in Fargo last year at 215 and MN champ Nelson was 8th. Weber and Krakower, meanwhile, were 1st and 2nd place finishers at the Beast of the East. Machiaroli and Drummond are both 3x state champs and Nic Pica from California emerged as a contender by winning the Califorinia 215lb title in dominant fashion. Wood was 3rd in Cali, however, he won the tough Reno TOC and he was 4th at NHSCA Jrs last year at 215. This weight looks very deep, especially for 215, a weight that is not tradionally real strong. While it is deep, I don't see a real stand out guy here like Dubose from last year.
There are no Michigan entries, however, it would have been nice to see how a guy like Lasinksi or Beebe would have fared here.
285
Favorite to win - Ken Altarac (NY)
Top Contenders - Eloheim Palma (NC), Andrew Miller (VA), Jeremy Johnson (OH), Roger McCovey (CA)
Michigan's best bet - Michael McClure
Outlook - Good looking heavyweigth field this year with 5 of the top 10 big men in the country. Altarac, Palma, and McCovey were the top three finishers at NHSCA Juniors last year and all three should be among the favorites to win this weekend. Johnson was a Jr Freestyle all-american last summer and he won an Ohio Division 1 title this year as well as an Ironman Tourney title, he also beat Miller, who is a 3x VA champ, at the Beast of the East. All of these big men are dominant in their state and nationally accomplished, expect to see some battles in this weight.
Michigan has 4 solid heavyweights entered, led by undefeated Division 1 state champ McClure. McClure is a specimen of a 285lber and should be able to match up with just about anyone in terms of size and strength. This will be his first opportunity to compete on the national stage and he is definitely a guy to watch this weekend for Michigan.
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